March 2019
Good supply situation for seed maize
The supply situation for seed maize for forthcoming sowing can generally be regarded as good. As in previous years, the initial early supplies that ran out at the turn of the year were the largest in terms of volume. However, if we look at the availability of certain varieties, it can be observed that new products with good state variety trial results are already in short supply and some have even already sold out. As far as the development of acreage is concerned, we believe that there will be a stable to slightly growing market in the silage, biogas and corn maize segments this year.
Winter grain developing well
The sowing conditions for winter grain were favourable thanks to the dry weather that lasted well into the late autumn. An increase in grain acreage compensated for the drastically reduced winter rapeseed acreage. All winter grain crops have been expanded. Significantly large increases were recorded for winter rye and winter barley. Initial assessments just before the end of winter show that the grain has developed very favourably. In contrast, water supply is still limited in many locations, meaning further growth depends heavily on precipitation over the coming weeks. In the main, it is expected that the 2018 water deficit will also affect the 2019 grain harvest.
Steady trading with summer cereals
Due to the current weather conditions, no increases due to winterkill are expected at present. As a result, the summer grain business is extremely steady with the excellent availability of commodities for spring barley (feeding) and summer wheat. Some oat varieties such as Max are in short supply.
Plant health becoming more important
Just like consumption cereals, winter cereals were propagated under good conditions. The changeover from C-wheat to A- and B-wheat due to the different classification of nitrogen requirements as part of fertiliser need calculations is also set to continue in 2019. Key active ingredients will be eliminated from fungicides over the next few years. As a result, the focus is on variety health alongside yield performance.
Winter rapeseed autumn sowing
Autumn sowing for winter rapeseed also presented a great challenge to farmers last year. Autumn 2018 was excessively dry; sowing was delayed until the late sowing times in September. Areas with only low residual moisture sprouted with difficulty. Often little or no field emergence was detected up to 14 days after sowing.
Beside the dry weather conditions for sowing, the strongly fluctuating crop yields are another reason for the marked decline in acreage for rapeseed. The main reasons for fluctuating corn yields are the prolonged precipitations in autumn, winter and spring 2018, the late frosts in March and April, and serious pest infestations on a regional level.
Established rapeseed varieties such as Hattrick, Bender, DK Exception and Trezzor were sown last autumn. The virus-resistant varieties, such as LG Architect, increased significantly in cultivation. The cabbage hay segment has been expanded thanks to the new SY Alibaba variety and farmers are also using new varieties such as DK Exclamation for experimental cultivation.
Weather conditions crucial over the coming weeks
The weather conditions over the coming weeks are a crucial factor when deciding if individual areas in regions still need to be ploughed. If the mild weather persists and no further plants are lost, crop density will be adequate in many fields. Weed control has not always been sufficiently effective on a regional level under the dry autumn conditions. Targeted controls are needed to treat areas when necessary.
Lack of feedstuff due to drought in summer and autumn
Due to the exceptional drought in the summer and autumn months of 2018, many farms, especially dairy farms, suffered from a lack of feedstuff. Long dry periods have placed a heavy strain on the grassland stock, causing feed shortages. The tough conditions are expected to continue in the spring. Gaps in the feed supply need to be filled.
Autumn business was intense. There was significantly higher demand, especially for year-long grasses, due to the drought and the consequential shortage of feed. Significant amounts of the 2018 crop have already been used due to the need for autumn sowing. As the drought persisted until mid-October, especially in northern Germany, there was often no feed crop in the autumn. Some damage could not be remedied by reseeding either. As a result, increased demand is expected in the spring.
Sobering grass harvest in 2018
Grass harvests were largely sobering in 2018. Harvests were about 20 to 30 per cent below the long-term average, depending on the region and type. Catch crops such as mustard, oilseed radish and phacelia also experienced similar poor harvesting conditions. In general, we could observe that the further east the location of a propagation area was, the higher the yield losses were. Harvest losses amounted to around 20 to 30 per cent in Poland, for example, around 40 to 60 per cent in Hungary and the Czech Republic and around 70 to 80 per cent in Romania.
Reduction in harvests
All in all, delayed catch crop sowing and drought led to reductions in harvests. Late sowing resulted in late plant development with plants also exposed to extreme dry periods. Plants also missed out on a month of development.
Many grass and catch crop components, especially recommended items, are mostly sold out or scarce on the market. As a result, prices for key components have increased significantly compared to previous years.
