Chilla checks!

AGRAVIS expert Bernhard Chilla analyses the markets

Which markets are stable? How are grains and oilseeds developing? What is the impact of the world climate on our regional harvest? AGRAVIS expert Bernhard Chilla examines these and other questions and provides market analyses for professionals and laypersons.

15/11/2018

“The global trade in corn maize is growing significantly after the drought in Europe. In 2018/2019, Germany should no longer import as much maize as it has many years previously.”

The world supply of maize – how large is the global grain supply in 2018/2019?

Around the world, the highest crop losses since 2012/2013 were registered for wheat; at the same time, the worldwide grain reserves are said to have been at their highest levels in 2017/2018 and 2018/2019. The global supply balances are shaped increasingly by the United States and especially by China. In its WASDE Report in November 2018, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated that over 70 per cent of the global end-of-crop inventories (wheat, maize, rice, rye, barley) are located in the United States and China. Five years ago, this level was still at about 50 per cent.

Over 70 per cent of the global grain supplies are stored in the United States and China – especially corn maize

With over 70 per cent of the worldwide grain supplies in the United States and China, however, the inventories in all other important countries (especially the important export countries of wheat and barley) are increasingly reduced. This has been true especially for the global wheat supply. Europe and, above all others, Russia, had covered the rapidly growing global demand in the last five years, while the wheat export in the United States hardly changed compared to ten years ago. In this economic year, the drought in Europe clearly showed how low the wheat supply is around the world, outside of China. Due to the high crop losses in Europe and Australia compared to the previous year, it would be difficult for global production to cover a similarly high demand as in the last two years. Most recently, the global wheat demand increased preferably in the feed sector. This development was observed not only in Germany but also its neighbouring nations and the south-east Asian region, since wheat was relatively inexpensive compared to other agricultural commodities. However, this price ratio underwent a substantial change in the end. Wheat became much more expensive and was no longer viable in the feed rations. For that reason, corn maize plays a greater role during this financial year. Corn maize should displace wheat from the feed rations worldwide. This requires a significant increase in the global corn maize production, however.

More detailed background information on the topic of “Global supply of maize 2018/2019"



The above analysis is explicitly not intended to be an investment recommendation! The author merely presents his personal opinion after assessing various market criteria. Neither the author nor AGRAVIS Raiffeisen AG can make any kind of forecast regarding the development of commodity prices and explicitly point out that these can be subject to great fluctuation and impacted by many, sometimes unknown factors.